This week I was on vacation and spent some time in the Ruhr, the former German industrial heartland. Next time I’ll have more to say about that, but it’s been a big week in climate news, so without any further ado, let’s turn to that.
Climate
Nord Stream Methane leak: the environmental impact
The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea near Denmark have suffered major ruptures in a likely act of sabotage by unknown actors, causing a large amount of natural gas to escape. “Natural gas” is essentially a friendlier-sounding word for methane, a potent but relatively short-lived greenhouse gas that is nearly 80 times as effective as CO2 in capturing heat for the first 20 years.
The amount of methane being released by this leak is large compared to other accidents, and will probably turn out to be the largest ever. Kristoffer Böttzauw, head of the Danish Energy Agency, reported that 778 million cubic meters of natural gas were held in the pipelines. More than half of that gas has already escaped, and the rest is expected to leak out over the next few days.
However, compared to annual global methane emissions of around 32 billion tons, the amount is relatively small. University of Leeds climate scientist and IPCC-contributor Chris Smith calculates that the likely impact is “median additional warming of 0.000016°C that peaks by 2030”, suggesting that the incident is not cause for alarm - at least, for its impact on global warming.
Politico: 8 things to know about the environmental impact of ‘unprecedented’ Nord Stream leaks
Reuters: More than half the gas has left damaged Nord Stream pipelines - Danish Energy Agency head
What should we do about air travel?
Steffen Kallbekken and David G. Victor published an excellent and worthwhile survey in Nature reviewing the current state of air travel in relation to climate change, and offering recommendations for future action.
One interesting tidbit I picked up from this article is that airplane contrails can stimulate the formation of cirrus clouds, which are the most effective cloud type for trapping heat. A recent study found that the warming effects of airplane-seeded clouds may actually be a larger driver of warming than the associated CO2 emissions, though this has been contradicted by other research and further study is needed.
Wildfires cause drier forests, which cause wildfires
A recent PNAS study identified a vicious circle driving destructive fires in the western United States, in which an increase in forest fires leads to faster snowmelt and less available water, which leads to a further increase in forest fires. Bob Berwyn takes a close look for Inside Climate News in Western Forests, Snowpack and Wildfires Appear Trapped in a Vicious Climate Cycle.
That is an awful lot of fish
The New York Times published a detailed look at the heavy and rising toll of Chinese fishing on the world’s fish populations. Having mostly depleted their own coastal waters, an enormous fleet of Chinese fishing boats is scouring the oceans. Near the Galápagos in 2020, nearly 300 Chinese boats skirted the international waters just outside Ecuador’s territory so closely that “satellite mapping of their positions traced the zone’s boundary,” Chinese boats accounted for a startling 99% of the fishing near the island.
Renewable Energy and Technology
Is the high cost of renewables a myth?
A widely-reported major study led by Professor Doyne Farmer at Oxford made headlines a few weeks ago announcing that a rapid decarbonization of the energy grid could lead to global savings of up to $12 trillion. The authors find that previous modeling has largely failed to account for a robustly-observed decline in prices found with certain emerging technologies comparable to renewable energies. The price decline stems from a “learning curve” that happens when the various elements of production gradually become more and more efficient and productive. This phenomenon has already led to solar and wind electricity becoming the cheapest forms of electricity in history.
David Roberts over at Volts interviewed Professor Farmer about the study and its implications on his podcast - check it out!
Volts: Learning curves will lead to extremely cheap clean energy
Joule: Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition (original study)
California’s solar power: a study in variable availability
One of the hard problems in making a large-scale transition to renewable energies is dealing with variable supply. The classic example is that the sun doesn’t always shine, so how do you power the lights at night?
This is a problem that has already reared its head in California, as the Washington Post’s Erica Werner reports in California is awash in renewable energy — except when it’s most needed. The article provides a useful look at the current state of the problem.
It’s worth noting that many climate researchers consider this to be a tired old canard often invoked by people who oppose renewables, and there is a lot that can be done, at least in principle, such as building out inter-regional transmission lines to carry power from sunny regions to cloudy ones, or to build city-scale battery reserves, though nothing like this yet exists. That said, it is an issue that still needs to be solved.
Politics and Policy
Manchin drops energy permit reform proposal
West Virginia senator Joe Manchin has dropped a contentious proposal to reform the environmental review process for issuing permits for energy projects after it became clear that he would not be able to marshal the necessary votes. It is widely agreed by conservationists that some kind of permit reform is necessary, because it will be difficult to rapidly deploy new renewable energy technologies at scale in the US without streamlining the current process, which is long and arduous.
However, how to deliver such reform without opening the door for industry to bulldoze over legitimate environmental concerns is a hard problem to solve. With few friends left after years of high-profile gamesmanship, Manchin did not turn out to be the person for the job. Some Democrats led by Bernie Sanders criticized his approach for being too fossil-friendly, while many GOP senators indicated support for an alternative proposal by fellow Republican Shelley Capito of West Virginia.
World Bank head faces jeers, calls to resign for climate denial
After Al Gore referred to World Bank president David Malpass as a “climate denier” at a climate conference, New York Times climate reporter David Gelles pressed Malpass to publicly affirm the settled science on climate change, only to get a series of mealy-mouthed evasions for his trouble. Surprisingly, the incident blew up, leading to statements of concern by foreign governments and calls for his resignation.
Speaking to Politico in the aftermath, Malpass blamed the incident on an unfortunate choice of words, saying “When asked, ‘Are you a climate denier?’ I should’ve said no,” and “It was a poorly chosen line, I regret that, because we as an organization are using the science every day.”
California moves to phase out natural gas furnaces by 2030
Citing the need to reduce ozone and nitrogen oxide emissions to bring the state in line with EPA requirements, the California Air Resources Board has approved a measure to ban the sale of gas furnaces and water heaters for homes in 2030, which will need to use alternatives such as electric heaters. As an added benefit, the move could significantly reduce the state’s carbon footprint, as heating and cooling homes is responsible for around 17% of greenhouse gas emissions.
State agencies will next draft a rule for implementing the change, which will be put to a final vote in 2025.
UK lifts fracking ban
Under new Prime Minister Liz Truss, the UK has lifted a ban on fracking that has been in force since 2019. The move is nominally intended to combat soaring energy bills, but some critics have argued that new energy resources are likely to be too small and too far in the future to help.
Join the conversation!
Any thoughts about this week’s newsletter? Something you’d like to add, or that you disagreed with? Something you’d like to see more or less of, going forward? Please let us all know in the comments below! Managing climate change is first and foremost a conversation.
Thank you for this great roundup! Can you explain a little bit more about what this means? "is nearly 80 times as effective as CO2 in capturing heat for the first 20 years"--thanks!