From off the bookshelves: Reading about the 4.2-kiloyear drought event that contributed substantially to the collapse of the long-lived Old Egyptian and Akkadian empires, I came across this striking bit from the Egyptian Ankhitfi Inscription: “The Nile Valley is empty, people are crossing the river by foot.” (From: Gerhard Gerold’s excellent Klimawandel und der Untergang von Hochkulturen).
Reminds me some of today’s news.
Reminder to vote: If you live in the US, please vote as though the biosphere depends on it. If you need help figuring out where and how, check out TurboVote.
News roundup
Climate
IEA: Emissions to grow less than 1% this year
Starting off with some really good news! Despite a rebound in travel and the resurgence of coal in Europe in response to the war against Ukraine, we’re set for an unusually small increase in CO2 emissions this year, according to the IEA - and largely because of the growth of renewables, though China’s economic slowdown was also a significant factor. AP quotes the report: “The rise in global CO2 emissions this year would be much larger – more than tripling to reach close to 1 billion tonnes – were it not for the major deployments of renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles around the world.”
We're probably on the rising edge of the largest energy transitions in human history - even after a 34% increase in solar and wind energy prices this year driven by a surge of demand, renewables are still highly competitive with fossil fuels.
Reuters: Global CO2 emissions to grow less than 1% this year thanks to renewables- IEA
AP: Energy agency: CO2 emissions rise in 2022, but more slowly
Who speaks for the trees?
More bad news for European forests, unfortunately, as EU governments relax logging rules ahead of the winter. Burning wood fuel is of course a double-whammy, both releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and also disrupting forested areas, which are themselves an important carbon sink when left undisturbed.
In related news, a new study shows that the greenhouse gases released by California’s 2020 wildfires was more than twice the amount saved by all of the state’s ambitious emissions reductions programs from 2003 to 2019 combined. It should be noted that it’s hard to make simple comparisons between these two values, as burning fossil fuels releases carbon that would otherwise have remained trapped for millions of years, while forests are by their nature more transient stores of carbon. In addition, “forest fires can help preserve carbon stocks by germinating seeds, mobilizing nutrients, thinning overly dense forests and reducing risk of catastrophic wildfire,” according to David Clegern of the California Air Resources Board.
Newly-discovered Rice Whale under threat
A new species of whale has been discovered in the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, there are only 50 known members of its entire population, so its conservation status is tenuous at best. A group of marine scientists has petitioned the Biden administration to take action for their protection, as they are potentially threatened by oil and gas exploration in their natural habitat.
Billions of snow crabs “disappeared,” i.e., died
The Bering Sea witnessed a dramatic decline in the normally-abundant snow crab population, plummeting from around eight billion to one billion in a single year. Michael Lowitz of the NOAA Fisheries has put the blame squarely on human-caused climate change:
Snow crabs are cold-water species and found overwhelmingly in areas where water temperatures are below 2 degrees Celsius, Litzow says. As oceans warm and sea ice disappears, the ocean around Alaska is becoming inhospitable for the species.
“There have been a number of attribution studies that have looked at specific temperatures in the Bering Sea or Bering Sea ice cover in 2018, and in those attribution studies, they’ve concluded that those temperatures and low-ice conditions in the Bering sea are a consequence of global warming,” Litzow said.
More than 80% of US is abnormally dry
According to the Washington Post, 82% of the continental United States is “abnormally dry” or drier, based on the US Drought Monitor - the most widespread aridity since it was launched in 2000. The Western United States is undergoing the worst drought in 1200 years and less than 10% of the High Planes is drought-free.
In another recent article, the Post reports that water levels are so low on the Mississippi River due to drought that river traffic is imperiled.
Renewable Energy and Technology
Greece temporary reaches 100% renewable electricity
Greece reached an important milestone for five hours earlier this month when the country’s entire energy demands were met by renewable power sources, primarily wind and solar.
Politics and Policy
New Jersey sues Big Oil over climate change denial
Oil is unbelievably cheap. At the time these words were written, crude oil in USD was 58 cents per liter, making it cheaper than Coca-Cola or bottled water.
It’s widely argued that oil is underpriced, because its consumer costs don’t reflect the additional costs (or externalities) that society is on the hook for because of their use. There were $145 billion in hurricane-related damages in the US in 2021, for example, and some percentage of that damage is the result of climate change. These significant costs for oil use are simply passed along to the general population of the country, and the world, at large.
This is going to be one of the major topics at the upcoming COP27 summit on climate change, where a number of small and/or modernizing countries are urgently raising the question of who should pay for the climate-change-related extreme weather. Ahead of the summit, 20 nations at high risk for such damages have threatened to halt repayment on $685 billion in collective debts.
One way to deal with this problem would be to assess a carbon tax to force the commodity price to more accurately reflect its real costs to society as a whole. For various reasons, this approach has failed politically in the United States, and this has left state governments asking what they can do to otherwise recoup these costs. Now, New Jersey is joining the growing number of states that are seeking to do so through litigation, and is suing several major oil companies including Chevron, Shell, and ExxonMobil for billions of dollars.
New Jersey’s litigation depends on the claim that the named oil companies have intentionally misled consumers and regulators about the dangers posed by climate change for decades, and thereby ran afoul of consumer protection laws in the state.
Netherlands leaves Energy Charter Treaty
The Energy Charter Treaty is an old agreement that is supposed to coordinate the international integration of energy systems and providers, particularly fossil fuels. It includes a controversial dispute resolution mechanism that allows fossil fuel companies to sue other countries for their policies intended to cut carbon emissions. For example, the German energy provider RWE sued the Netherlands for over a billion euros in “compensation” for the country’s plans to phase out coal by 2030 (see also here). Germany itself has previously been sued by a Swedish company over its own nuclear phase-out plans. These disputes are handled by secretive tribunals.
The Netherlands is joining a growing number of countries that are exiting the agreement, which critics have described as a major obstacle to decarbonization. Spain and Poland are in the process of withdrawal, and Italy has already left.
The Netherlands, like the rest of Europe, is absorbed in a complex process of balancing novel energy challenges posed by the Russian war against Ukraine with its commitments to reducing emissions. For example, the New York Times ran an interesting in-depth look at the country’s decision not to re-open one of the largest natural gas fields in the world for exploitation.
Far-right government in Sweden scraps environment ministry
The far-right Swedish Democrats are now top dog in the country’s governing coalition, having garnered the largest number of votes in the national elections in September. 18 of the party’s 30 founders were actual Nazis, and some of them served in the Waffen SS.
Now, for the first time in 35 years, Sweden will have no climate ministry. New Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson appointed the Minister of Climate and Environment Romina Pourmokhtari to serve under the new Minister for Energy, Business and Industry instead of in her own ministry.
The government’s stated policy agenda does continue to affirm Sweden’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions per its outstanding agreements such as the Paris Accord.
Fallout continues for World Bank on Climate
Recent criticisms of World Bank head David Malpass’s misstatements on climate change do not appear to be leading toward his ouster, but they may be moving in a more productive overall direction, as they have given focus to longstanding criticisms that the World Bank is not doing enough to combat climate change relative to other development banks. Politico has more.
Join the conversation!
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Climate News Update
This was a wonderful overview. Thanks. Great to see the forces / players interacting - sometimes a positive move here, sometimes a negative one there. Seeing the dynamic in action is helpful (and perhaps hopeful).